Auquan Blog

Global Covid-19 Spread: What you need to know this week

April 17, 2020 by Chandini

As the financial focus shifts towards the state of global economy, at Auquan we are actively looking at how analysis of infection charts can inform economic forecasting, and upcoming policy moves. Here's some takeaways from this week:

Europe

In Europe, the majority of infection curves for countries with over 1000 deaths are starting to show signs of a bend, signalling they are potentially close to their peak.

  • Italy and Spain are already plateauing, with Germany and France close behind.
  • UK slowing, but not plateauing yet

Countries with fewer than 1000 deaths are a mixed bag, but all of them have lower growth rates than the alarming rates at which infections grew in Italy, Spain or France. The only notable exception is Turkey.



United States

This week has seen an unprecedented surge in US unemployment numbers (16.9 million people have filed jobless claims since the layoffs and shutdowns related to covid19).

This clearly shows the economic effect of the virus on the US economy. Understanding how it might spread will help us understand which parts will be affected when.

Let's analyse each US state separately: - NY, NJ and California infection curves, which had grown at an alarming rate last month, are starting to show signs of a bend – signalling potential infection peak and case plateau is near. We should start to see a gradual reopening of the economy in these states soon. - Other states are far from peak, but growth as been controlled so far. Massachusetts, Illinois and Connecticut need to be watched the most.


States with fewer than 500 reported deaths are still far from plateau, and will likely need to keep distancing measures longer to avoid a NY like situation.



Rest of the World

Some countries are still seeing exponential growth and some are closer to the plateau. All of them have lower growth rates than China, Italy, Spain or France.

Brazil, India and Mexico are ones to watch carefully. It should also be noted that Japan's confirmed cases are growing again.

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