Coronavirus Forward Looking Estimates - Part 1
March 23, 2020 by Chandini
As coronavirus cases continue to grow we take a look at forward looking estimates for some european countries
We've undertaken extensive covid19 modeling at Auquan to forecast how the epidemic situation could develop and what some of the blindspots in data might be. We conclude that the true number infections in many countries maybe 15-20x the number of confirmed cases. For example, France is reporting 6650 confirmed cases(16/3), but we estimate the true infected population including asymptomatics (people who don’t show any symptoms but can spread the infection), is 120,000+! Spain has an official confirmed case count of 9,942, but this could be as high as 213,000.
Why this discrepancy? The data so far on how many people are infected varies between geographies - most countries lack kits to test a large number of people, implying a vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed.
France with a population of 67 million people has done 15,018 tests(224 tests per million people). Spain has done ~370 tests per million people. South Korea, with the most expansive testing architecture, has tested 248,647 for a population of 51 million people (4,831 per million people).
Given the lack of complete data due to limits on testing capabilities, we need more advanced techniques to analyse the spread and growth of future infections
You can track Auquan's model's future two week estimates here: https://clients.auquan.com/coronavirus
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